russia will not collapse on its own. stop waiting.
all empires eventually end. but not without a help.
here is what's in store for you this week:
(estimated reading time: 8 min)
Ending russia: why betting on russia collapsing on its own never works, historically speaking.
Changing russia: “russia is not a country that can be democratized. It was not built that way.”
Learn: russia spends millions annually to hide its largest crime ever committed. You can push back and learn about it, online and for free.
Recognise pattern: what is ‘russian gaze,’ what does it have to do with russian imperialism and why almost every russian is affected by it.
Culture: advice for tyrants from one of the most celebrated Ukrainian poets of the past.
This week makes the betting for the imminent collapse of the russian colonial empire easy. Ukrainian deep strikes have just taken out 40% of the russian energy export facilities, disrupting the empire’s main source of revenue and an attempt to cash in on the rising oil prices. Ukrainian armed forces continue deleting 30,000+ russian invaders a month, at a rate faster than the kremlin is able to replace them with new hired goons (yes, more than 65% of the russian army are still contracted fighters killing Ukrainian for money). And putin is reportedly started bullying russian oligarchs into funding his genocidal war.
All of it is happening almost exclusively thanks to the rising pressure that the Ukrainian resistance is putting on the empire. Nothing else. And how exactly are we helping Ukraine to sustain this pressure? By lifting russian oil sanctions. By considering taking back the money already booked for Ukrainian air defences. By failing to unblock billions in EU aid to Ukraine.
After studying dozens of resistance campaigns to russian imperial invasions and key moments that almost ended the empire in its five-century history, I can state with absolute certainty that we are facing the largest infliction point leading to the collapse of russian imperialism. It is a unique window of opportunity, but not a guaranteed one, and it is closing fast.
In my recent interview with the largest Czech newsroom Seznam Zpravy, I remind that, historically speaking, russia is strongest in very rapid invasions (days/weeks), but long wars of attrition (over four years) weaken its empire, and the current war could be just such a turning point. But without sustained international pressure and a clear naming of the true nature of this war, the russian imperial system may survive for decades to come. Here’s a passage from the interview, translated to English:
I would be cautious about being overly optimistic. The russian empire has survived for 500 years, the longest of all colonial empires after the Arab one. It has vast natural resources (stolen from the colonised lands) and can function for a long time this way. If there is no coordinated international pressure, such a system may survive for many more decades. Moreover, russia is learning and adapting. It may not be as innovative as Ukraine, but on the battlefield we see it adapting quickly, especially in modern warfare and robotics operations. Therefore, I do not think that we can just wait for the empire to collapse on its own. Without active and sustained pressure, this will not happen.
Do you think that russia is capable of fundamental change at all?
Every empire will perish one day. The question is whether we will just wait for it to happen naturally, which may take decades or generations, or whether we have a chance to speed up this process.
Moreover, the situation today is different from the past. russia does not act alone; it has the support of China, Iran, North Korea and, indirectly, some democratic countries that continue to trade with it. Thanks to this international network, the imperial system can survive longer, even at the cost of enormous human suffering inside the empire.
So the question is not whether the russian empire will fall one day, but how many other countries and peoples will be destroyed in the meantime if we just passively wait.
When you say that every empire will fall one day, including russia, how realistic do you imagine that could happen?
First of all, we can only talk about this at all thanks to the Ukrainian resistance. Without him, there would be no debate about the fall of the russian empire. Ukrainian resistance has historically been the strongest and most successful counterpressure the russian empire has ever faced.
I have studied dozens of russian invasions and imperial campaigns, something like this russia has never experienced in history. In addition to courage and determination, technological innovation and modern asymmetric warfare also play a big role, fundamentally changing the balance of power in favour of Ukraine. This is the first and key condition.
The second is the decolonisation of russia itself, i.e. the possibility for the nations now controlled by moscow to decide for themselves whether they want to remain part of Russia or be independent. It is about returning the voice, rights and political subjectivity of people from whom they have historically been taken away.
In my book, I write openly: the only long-term peace plan that works is partitioned, disarmed and decolonised russia. It does not mean “erasing russia”, but dismantling the imperial power structure. All other empires in the past have fallen. So it is not a utopia to imagine, but a historical trend.
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